Earth Lab 2

Earth Lab 2 (EL 2) is an initiative tied to the TBD national impact 501c3 nonprofit I am developing. – Grant Millin, Strategy Innovator and StratGen CEO

Rather than going straight into the strategy statement and program management plan for EL 2 — which I am ready to admit I alone am unlikely to produce — EL 2 is a challenge for SI 2 members and those who support the TBD nonprofit I am developing. The challenge is that strategic communication around the Anthropogenic Climate to Climate Protection Transition has been hit and miss since the Kyoto Protocol. So, here’s a bit on the challenge and then in private I am happy to present on the origins of EL 2. Otherwise for now I will say serious science museums were the sites of the original ‘Earth Lab’. ‘Earth Lab 1’ was a digital immersion exhibit.

One thing that would need to be different is making EL 2 about diffusion as to relatively easy remote access. That’s at least an opportunity area as ICT (Information and Communication Technology) is much different over a decade later as EL 1 launched in 2010.

And here’s the potential start of some introductory text for the EL 2 program proposal:

Establishing global resilience and then sustainability by 2035 is necessary. Therefore, we must move away from an unpredictable X Factor Future to a future managed for public good with Strategic Innovation 2.0.

Anthropogenic Climate creates Dangerous (> 1.5 °C), Catastrophic (> 3 °C), and Unknown (> 5 °C) global outcomes without sufficient cognitive and civilization architectural change for Climate Protection. The climate was fine as is in 1750. Leaders had the information and moral imperative by 2000 to design Climate Protection into transformations affecting the public.

Now, extraordinarily difficult yet ethically transformative public good maneuvers are required. Climate Protection VMOSA* details to follow.

*VMOSA – Vision, Mission, Goals, Objectives, Sub Strategies, Action Plans, and Tasks

It is extremely difficult to get most citizens engaged with graphs like the following 2023 image produced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which appears on page 59 of the IPCC AR 6 Climate Change 2023 Synthesis Report. It may be that specific economic outcomes like Anthropogenic Climate trade / supply chain disruptions are motivating more for some than going over ‘too much greenhouse gases’ (there’s a movement to refer to GHGs as ‘heat-trapping gases’). For others, learning about the temperature range resilience of Amazon tree leaves may be the interest area.

In any case, it’s been a long time since the Kyoto Protocol and while there’s been progress, the radical GHG cuts represented in the following image require an equally radical platform; such as a version of Strategic Innovation 2.0.

NDCs stands for Nationally Determined Contributions to the current UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreement. Click on the image for larger view.

The Climate Endgame Report

The recent Climate Endgame report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is pretty unsettling. Human overwhelm is part of the Strategic Communication analysis covered as well as need to do special analysis on high magnitude, high impact and severity scenarios with Business-as-Usual to moderate Climate Protection strategy:

An IPCC Special Report on Catastrophic Climate Change

“The IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has yet to give focused attention to catastrophic climate change. Fourteen special reports have been published. None covered extreme or catastrophic climate change. A special report on “tipping points”was proposed for the seventh IPCC assessment cycle, and we suggest this could be broadened to consider all key aspects of catastrophic climate change. This appears warranted, following the IPCC’s decision framework. Such a report could investigate how Earth system feedbacks could alter temperature trajectories, and whether these are irreversible.

A special report on catastrophic climate change could help trigger further research, just as the “Global warming of 1.5° C” special report did. That report also galvanized a groundswell of public concern about the severity of impacts at lower temperature ranges. The impact of a report on catastrophic climate change could be even more marked. It could help bring into focus how much is at stake in a worst-case scenario. Further research funding of catastrophic and worst-case climate change is critical.

Effective communication of research results will be key.

While there is concern that fear-invoking messages may be unhelpful and induce paralysis, the evidence on hopeful vs. fearful messaging is mixed, even across metaanalyses. The role of emotions is complex, and it is strategic to adjust messages for specific audiences.

One recent review of the climate debate highlighted the importance of avoiding political bundling, selecting trusted messengers, and choosing effective frames. These kinds of considerations will be crucial in ensuring a useful and accurate civic discussion.”

Six of Nine Planetary Health Boundaries Exceeded

Also, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Science Advances, recently published the new Nine Planetary Health Boundaries report. These Earth Science boundaries exceeding natural state since the Industrial Age help establish this is indeed the Anthropocene.